WHY THE O.K. TICKET IS NOT OKAYAli Abubakar Sadiq

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WHY THE O.K. TICKET IS NOT OKAY
Ali Abubakar Sadiq 

The recent permutations in the polity are not by accident but by design. Let's look back a little. In 2019, under the PDP, Atiku Abubakar picked Peter Obi as his running mate. They challenged the then popular Muhammad Buhari and failed, after a good fight. Fast forward 2023, Buhari at the end of his second term must give room for someone from the South (the unwritten political constitution of zoning). Tinubu, despite Buhari and his collaborators in the APC, bamboozled everyone to clinched the ticket. 

The most surprising thing was Obi declaring to run on his own ticket in 2023, and Atiku was naive enough to let him go. That was the single stroke that crumbled the opposition. But whose idea is it in the first place?
One can n easily trace it to the pathological hatred of Obasanjo towards an Atiku presidency. With nostalgia, some of us could remember how such pathological hatred among elites led to the civil war in the 1960's. We remember the silver spoon Ojukwu's envy towards the humble Gowon as the spark that ignites the fire that consumed 2 million Nigerian lives as a result of the secessionist declaration of Biafra under Ojukwu. In less than three years, but after the massive destruction of lives and properties, Ojukwu shamelessly picked his bag and left Nigerian shores, leaving in his wake his comrade-at-arms and his Biafra dreams and citizens destroyed.

Obasanjo, naively thought, since power is returning to the South, nothing could stop the charging train of Obi under his teeming obedients. He thought he will be killing two birds with one stones: scuttle Atiku presidency and install Obi's. He underestimate the intelligence and strategy of Tinubu. The rest was history.

As for Tinubu, after the victory, he realized how narrowly he escaped as the winner, having only polled 8 million votes against the combined 14 million votes of the opposition. He saw the Euraka moments in that election and vows to sustain it. From day one, his strategy begins to unfold as he arbitrarily announced subsidy removal. The single act, made him the most powerful politician and executive in our national history. The subsidy removal windfall allows him to control every key sector of, not only Nigerian economy but it's politics.
The opposition went into slumber only to wake up in December 2025, too late and too divided. As we marched towards 2027, I dare say, barring a miracle, there is no way anyone can defeat Tinubu. 

Ruling parties can be and has been defeated, as the 2015 elections clearly showed us how that can be achieved. Two critical factors must be in place to achieve such a miracle: A unified opposition platform and a strong rallying figure, none of which are obtainable today.

Obi and Kwankwaso are jokers, as far as I am concerned because elections are definitely about numbers and they are not even close enough. Obi, as always with the South East, is assured of their block votes. Perhaps the Christianity factor (diluted and unlike the 2023 scenario) will give him some votes in the middle belt and some insignificant in the North because of the Kwankwaso factor. One thing for sure and I can bet anything on it, Obi will never have the constitutionally required 25% of the 2/3 of the 36 states. I am also sure, Kwankwaso's percentage in the last elections is not obtainable today for two reasons. First, his Kwankwasiyya base has been weakened internally as a result of his conflict with Abba Gida-gida. Secondly, he is no longer seen under the garb of houlier-than-thou attitude he used to enjoy in the past. 

Many people today are seeing Kwankwaso as two-faced politician who always protect his interest first. Many sees him a destabilizing factor, a sell out for northern interest, contradictory for not living up to some ideals he sold to people in the past. In short, the duo cannot win against Tinubu in 2027. 

I am not saying the ride for Tinubu wouldn't be bumpy, far from it. The opposition (If Jonathan bid is confirmed) would have been the most diverse our democracy has ever seen. A core northerner (Kwankwaso) an Igbo (Obi) and minority (Jonathan). The votes are once again scattered among the opposition, which would eventually pave way for Tinubu, even if it comes to second round elections, to consolidate his second term.

In simple terms, the OK ticket is not okay for Nigerians, but it will certainly be for Tinubu...perhaps it was roll out by design after all?

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