ADC AND THE INSIDIOUS CRACK UNDERNEATHAli Abubakar Sadiq

Isn't it a bit nostalgic when you see how the ruling party intimidates the efforts of ADC for it's convention? Impunity knew no bounds by PDP during the dying days of Jonathan administration. Ameachi was harassed as his security were withdrawn, so was Kwankwaso. Rivers state government was sieged as Kwankwaso summon the Kwankwasiyya youth to protect government house after the withdrawal of his security too. Adams Oshiomole was prevented to fly and attend a political rally as NCAA grounded Rivers state owned aircraft to restrict Ameachi's movement.

Despite state power and it's coercive ability, Jonathan was booted out of office by popular opposition that is beyond politicians alone. Collective consciousness channelled by a rallying figure was the miracle that, for the first time in our history, a ruling party was defeated by the opposition. That was no small feat considering our political antecedent and elections trajectories.

We can easily see the similarities of 2014 and 2026 of the political scenario as we approach the general elections. But the similarities fades in comparison if we compare the huge difference of the two situations. In 2014 the APC had clear thinkers and strategists willing to deploy all their resources to capture power. In 2026 the ADC, lacking clear thinkers and strategists, naively relies on almost empty political bigwigs that aren't ready to deploy resources. The APC in 2014 had a coalition of the willing, ready to sacrifice personal ambition for the victory of the party. But the ADC in 2026 is a coalition of strange bedfellows forced into a coalition for their personal ambitions.

In 2023, no opposition had ever had the chances of defeating a ruling party in our history due to the wasteful, regretful eight years of Buhari's clueless misrule. With combined 14 million votes scattered, the opposition ended up loosing to a paltry 8 million votes of Tinubu. Atiku's and Obi's personal ambitions, whom Ironically contested on the same ticket four years earlier in 2019, divided the votes between themselves to hand over the presidency to Tinubu.

Early last year, I tried to warn Atiku Abubakar and the opposition to come out of their cocoon of slumber and reorganize their house, if at all they are serious to defeat the opposition. My call fell on deaf ears. It was only in December, almost a year to the general elections, they started coming out of their cocoon, without a clear strategy. At the same time, I warned Kwankwaso of his dangerous procrastination, unless he wants to continue as local champion in Kano. It was only when Kano seems to be going out of his grasp with the decampment of Abba Gida-gida, that reality of what we had been warning him about dawned on him and reluctantly nudged him to formally joined ADC.

The most frightening sign, to me, about the ADC coalition is the statement of Peter Obi during the convention. He appealed to members of the ADC not to vote him out of ethno-religious sentiment and said he wouldn't condone any vote buying during the primaries. On the surface, those statement are worthy of applaud. But beneath it is a crack within the ADC that may become it's Waterloo. It shows Obi would contest the primaries and so was Atiku, neither willing to back off. The safest route for the ADC house not to fall apart is by conducting a concensus presidential primaries. You know why? Because as long as Atiku is in the race, no one can beat him in the primaries. He has more spread among delegates, has the financial muscle, experience and even the ability under the right circumstance to challenge the ruling party. 

The greatest nightmare of Obasanjo, was an Atiku's presidency and as long as he breath he will try to scuttle it. That is why he keeps hammering on Kwankwaso-Obi ticket. Should either side win in an open primaries in the ADC, could spell doom for them at the polls. 

On the other side, the APC under Tinubu started campaigning for the 2027 on his inaugural speech with the withdrawal of the fuel subsidy. Enriching the federal government and the governors while at the same time impoverishing the populace, which gave the APC the means to maintain the presidency. In 2023, the PDP had 15 governors, APGA, NNPP and labour parties had one each. By 2026, the APC have 31 governors under it's hat and still expecting one more state to join from Bauchi.

The biggest mistake ADC failed to realize is, throughout history, government control is only achieved when two conditions are met, the collective consciousness of the people (in popular uprising or the ballot) and a rallying figure trusted to rule. That was what happened in 2015. As for now, even with the collective consciousness being fertile for the electoral coup, the ADC has failed to provide Nigerians with that alternative rallying figure. Considering the status quo, nothing short of a miracle could unseat Tinubu come 2027. Nigerians could only hope for that trigger event that normally swings the mood of a nation and steer votes, for any hope of unseating the APC.