TINUBU, THE NORTH AND 2027 - Ali Abubakar Sadiq

For over a quarter of a century, Nigeria had not seen a master political strategist like Tinubu. He is a damn cool political customer that perfected the art of manipulating political friends and foes alike, using machinations that borders on capitalizing on polical greed, corrupt stance and selfish inclinations of our political elites.

Forget the NADECO days and the self imposed exile, or even the brief stint at the National Assembly as Distinguished Senator, he launched the first step of realizing his ambition to rule the country by contesting and winning the Lagos State Governorship in 1999.

You must give Tinubu credit for transforming Lagos in his two terms through pragmatic strategy of surrounding himself with some of the best minds and technocrats Lagos can offer at the time. He withstand the high-handedness of Obasanjo as he choked Lagos revenues by freezing it's Local government funds for two years. Tinubu not only launched himself but his human machinery, hoping to cash-in in the near future.

Being in opposition, he realized that the only way to defeat PDP, who publicly claimed they would dominate the Nigerian political space for the next 60 years, is to rally the opposition under another umbrella, to challenge the green-white-red umbrella of the PDP. The PDP could have dominate the next several decades, if it wasn't for Obasanjo's short-sightedness stemming from his anger against the political elites for blocking his third term bid, thus he foisted the duo of sick Yar Adua and weak Jonathan. A decision that clearly began to weaken PDP internally.

Jonathan's ethno-religious politics divided the nation sharply and Tinubu quickly saw the opportunity and decided it is time he bless the annointment of Muhammad Buhari, the most popular politician ever produced North of Niger. Thus he rallied the opposition under Buhari and unleashed the Southwest media, the Asiwaju political machinery and deep war chest which catapulted the three time looser under the tutelage of the schemer of Bourdoullion, into the presidency in 2015.

He calmly and patiently waited, bidding his time. With the catastrophe of Buhari 8 wasteful years, the APC shouldn't have had a second chance to rule again, but thanks to the greediness of Atiku and Obi. The duo that barely lost to Buhari in 2019 entered the 2023 race no longer as one united force, but on different platforms. Thus the opposition made history, losing to the ruling party despite having the superiority of over 4 million votes in the polls. It never happened anywhere in the history of elections.

From the catastrophic inaugural declaration "Subsidy is gone" without a clear plan, to ensuring Akpabio leads the Senate while Ganduje leads the party and Wike handed over Abuja as well as the duo of Badaru and Matawalle in defense, and factoring the grand betrayal of El Rufai, the champion of Muslim-Muslim ticket that tested the waters by experimenting in Kaduna, the writing on the wall is clear "What you put in, is what you take out" thus it would have been naive for us to expect much from the Tinubu team. A team that was sharply in contrast to his earlier team as Lagos governor.

Any right thinking person should understand that APC didn't actually win in the right sense, but it is the opposition that lost for dividing their votes. And Tinubu noted the flaw and understood the danger it poses should the opposition realize their mistake and rectify it in 2027. That is why you see, even before the second anniversary of the administration, campaign had subtly and stealthily began as Tinubu's APC is doing all it can to see the opposition remains divided and scattered up to the 2027 polls.

The 2027 campaign in the North was unofficially launched in Katsina under the extravagant wedding of the Governors daughter. Northern elites converged on the ancient city to pay homage and restate allegiance to the Emperor. Ganduje was right as he was rumored to have alleged that Tinubu should forget the youth and concentrate on the political elites. The Katsina fanfare strengthened that school of thought as neither the elite nor the masses took the President to task over the insecurity situation in the state. In fact a large billboard welcoming Tinubu says all is well in Katsina, there is no problem. A few days later, the official North, under the aegis of Northern Governors and Traditional rulers followed suit with a communique commending the president on the issue of security. It is clear, half-way into his first term, the president has already won the political elites in the North.

But as we all know, any election is like a pregnant woman, you cannot predict accurately what would happen, but two things appears clearly as far as the 2027 election is concerned. Tinubu stand a chance to be re-elected and there is also a big possibility he can loose, a 50-50 betting chances. 

Under the first scenario, if he succeeded in scattering the opposition by stopping them to unite, he would surely win. The main opposition is now coming from disgruntled and sidelined northern politicians and with their antecedents and selfish consideration, they might not properly unite. As disgruntled elements like El Rufai are joing SDP, rumors are saying Atiku is joining another party and no one knows actually what Obi plans on doing. Kwankwaso is rumored to, somewhere down the line, jump into the APC bandwagon. 2023 election clearly showed Kwankwaso is overrated as people tend to overestimate his influence in National politics, because the one million vote he garnered, wouldn't tip the election on either side. The PDP governors are not united and some even defecting to APC. As it stands for now, Tinubu strategy on crippling the opposition is working as early as this time. Can the opposition realize their mistake in 2023 and rectify it in 2027? Only time will tell as we have over a year and half ahead for strategies and restrategizing.

On the other hand, with Tinubu's antecedent in Lagos State as a governor, the last two years has been nothing but a huge disappointment as regards his Democratic ideals and capacity as a leader. His economic policies were a fiasco, sending the Naira into free flow while energy prices skyrocketted crippling small scale industries and businesses. From number one economy in the continent down to a struggling number 4. The insecurity issue is escalating and would continue to do so as we approach elections (we are seeing the resurgence of Boko Haram in the North East and escalation of banditry in the North West). The poverty level continue to rise, educational sector is in shambles, impunity rising by the day as freedom of speech is being stifled here and there. The myriads of problems Nigerians faced today, could rally the voters into one united opposition that could transcend party politics making people enmasse to vote APC out after 12 years of dismal and retrogressive governance.

I think one of the two scenarios would surely come to pass in 2027 and the judgment is left to Nigerians, to either unshackle themselves from the yoke of self-imposed slavery by their own votes and try another set, or allow APC to extend their 12 year misrule and mismanagement of our commonwealth to our collective detriment. Whichever way the pendulum swung, I am one Nigerian that already made peace with myself. All I know is everyone of us, from the high and mighty down to the low and the downtrodden, are just different ingredients of the same soup. Naturally when the pot boils, the diffusion of the hotter ingredients at the bottom will rise to the top, as the cooler ones at the top is pushed downwards, when the pot temperature reaches critical level, it will spill out and possibly tumbled down, laying to waste ingredients, regardless of their nature, as we become one in a united destiny of collective failure which we bought and paid for ourselves.

I am sure interesting times lies ahead, those who live long enough, will surely see it come to pass...whether we will make or mar our own futures.